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Locally Linear Continual Learning for Time Series based on VC-Theoretical Generalization Bounds

Ferreira, Yan V. G., Lima, Igor B., S., Pedro H. G. Mapa, Campos, Felipe V., Braga, Antonio P.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most machine learning methods assume fixed probability distributions, limiting their applicability in nonstationary real-world scenarios. While continual learning methods address this issue, current approaches often rely on black-box models or require extensive user intervention for interpretability. We propose SyMPLER (Systems Modeling through Piecewise Linear Evolving Regression), an explainable model for time series forecasting in nonstationary environments based on dynamic piecewise-linear approximations. Unlike other locally linear models, SyMPLER uses generalization bounds from Statistical Learning Theory to automatically determine when to add new local models based on prediction errors, eliminating the need for explicit clustering of the data. Experiments show that SyMPLER can achieve comparable performance to both black-box and existing explainable models while maintaining a human-interpretable structure that reveals insights about the system's behavior. In this sense, our approach conciliates accuracy and interpretability, offering a transparent and adaptive solution for forecasting nonstationary time series.





Reinforcement Learning for Control Systems with Time Delays: A Comprehensive Survey

Neto, Armando Alves

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the last decade, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in the control and decision-making of complex dynamical systems. However, most RL algorithms rely on the Markov Decision Process assumption, which is violated in practical cyber-physical systems affected by sensing delays, actuation latencies, and communication constraints. Such time delays introduce memory effects that can significantly degrade performance and compromise stability, particularly in networked and multi-agent environments. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of RL methods designed to address time delays in control systems. We first formalize the main classes of delays and analyze their impact on the Markov property. We then systematically categorize existing approaches into five major families: state augmentation and history-based representations, recurrent policies with learned memory, predictor-based and model-aware methods, robust and domain-randomized training strategies, and safe RL frameworks with explicit constraint handling. For each family, we discuss underlying principles, practical advantages, and inherent limitations. A comparative analysis highlights key trade-offs among these approaches and provides practical guidelines for selecting suitable methods under different delay characteristics and safety requirements. Finally, we identify open challenges and promising research directions, including stability certification, large-delay learning, multi-agent communication co-design, and standardized benchmarking. This survey aims to serve as a unified reference for researchers and practitioners developing reliable RL-based controllers in delay-affected cyber-physical systems.


Multiclass Graph-Based Large Margin Classifiers: Unified Approach for Support Vectors and Neural Networks

Hanriot, Vítor M., Torres, Luiz C. B., Braga, Antônio P.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While large margin classifiers are originally an outcome of an optimization framework, support vectors (SVs) can be obtained from geometric approaches. This article presents advances in the use of Gabriel graphs (GGs) in binary and multiclass classification problems. For Chipclass, a hyperparameter-less and optimization-less GG-based binary classifier, we discuss how activation functions and support edge (SE)-centered neurons affect the classification, proposing smoother functions and structural SV (SSV)-centered neurons to achieve margins with low probabilities and smoother classification contours. We extend the neural network architecture, which can be trained with backpropagation with a softmax function and a cross-entropy loss, or by solving a system of linear equations. A new subgraph-/distance-based membership function for graph regularization is also proposed, along with a new GG recomputation algorithm that is less computationally expensive than the standard approach. Experimental results with the Friedman test show that our method was better than previous GG-based classifiers and statistically equivalent to tree-based models.



CODE-II: A large-scale dataset for artificial intelligence in ECG analysis

Abreu, Petrus E. O. G. B., Paixão, Gabriela M. M., Li, Jiawei, Gomes, Paulo R., Macfarlane, Peter W., Oliveira, Ana C. S., Carvalho, Vinicius T., Schön, Thomas B., Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P., Ribeiro, Antônio H.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data-driven methods for electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation are rapidly progressing. Large datasets have enabled advances in artificial intelligence (AI) based ECG analysis, yet limitations in annotation quality, size, and scope remain major challenges. Here we present CODE-II, a large-scale real-world dataset of 2,735,269 12-lead ECGs from 2,093,807 adult patients collected by the Telehealth Network of Minas Gerais (TNMG), Brazil. Each exam was annotated using standardized diagnostic criteria and reviewed by cardiologists. A defining feature of CODE-II is a set of 66 clinically meaningful diagnostic classes, developed with cardiologist input and routinely used in telehealth practice. We additionally provide an open available subset: CODE-II-open, a public subset of 15,000 patients, and the CODE-II-test, a non-overlapping set of 8,475 exams reviewed by multiple cardiologists for blinded evaluation. A neural network pre-trained on CODE-II achieved superior transfer performance on external benchmarks (PTB-XL and CPSC 2018) and outperformed alternatives trained on larger datasets.


UrbanFusion: Stochastic Multimodal Fusion for Contrastive Learning of Robust Spatial Representations

Mühlematter, Dominik J., Che, Lin, Hong, Ye, Raubal, Martin, Wiedemann, Nina

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting urban phenomena such as housing prices and public health indicators requires the effective integration of various geospatial data. Current methods primarily utilize task-specific models, while recent foundation models for spatial representations often support only limited modalities and lack multimodal fusion capabilities. To overcome these challenges, we present UrbanFusion, a Geo-Foundation Model (GeoFM) that features Stochastic Multimodal Fusion (SMF). The framework employs modality-specific encoders to process different types of inputs, including street view imagery, remote sensing data, cartographic maps, and points of interest (POIs) data. These multimodal inputs are integrated via a Transformer-based fusion module that learns unified representations. An extensive evaluation across 41 tasks in 56 cities worldwide demonstrates UrbanFusion's strong generalization and predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art GeoAI models. Specifically, it 1) outperforms prior foundation models on location-encoding, 2) allows multimodal input during inference, and 3) generalizes well to regions unseen during training. UrbanFusion can flexibly utilize any subset of available modalities for a given location during both pretraining and inference, enabling broad applicability across diverse data availability scenarios. All source code is available at https://github.com/DominikM198/UrbanFusion.


"A 6 or a 9?": Ensemble Learning Through the Multiplicity of Performant Models and Explanations

Zuin, Gianlucca, Veloso, Adriano

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Creating models from past observations and ensuring their effectiveness on new data is the essence of machine learning. However, selecting models that generalize well remains a challenging task. Related to this topic, the Rashomon Effect refers to cases where multiple models perform similarly well for a given learning problem. This often occurs in real-world scenarios, like the manufacturing process or medical diagnosis, where diverse patterns in data lead to multiple high-performing solutions. We propose the Rashomon Ensemble, a method that strategically selects models from these diverse high-performing solutions to improve generalization. By grouping models based on both their performance and explanations, we construct ensembles that maximize diversity while maintaining predictive accuracy. This selection ensures that each model covers a distinct region of the solution space, making the ensemble more robust to distribution shifts and variations in unseen data. We validate our approach on both open and proprietary collaborative real-world datasets, demonstrating up to 0.20+ AUROC improvements in scenarios where the Rashomon ratio is large. Additionally, we demonstrate tangible benefits for businesses in various real-world applications, highlighting the robustness, practicality, and effectiveness of our approach.